[chinalco.com] 1. China's macroeconomic operation: the downward pressure on China's economy has increased, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continues to fall, the growth rate of infrastructure construction has fallen, and the risk of the real estate market has increased. In August, the HSBC manufacturing PMI index showed a slowdown in China's manufacturing recovery. Export data improved in July, while import was weak.

2. China's macroeconomic policy orientation: the executive meeting of the State Council on March 19 pointed out that we should stabilize the economic operation within a reasonable range. On June 16, the people's Bank of China lowered the standard once again. On June 30, the CBRC adjusted the statistical caliber of deposit loan ratio. Some cities have relaxed restrictions on purchasing documents. The central bank refinanced 1 trillion yuan to CDB through PSL.

3. Main causes and constraints of aluminum and zinc operation: the rebound of aluminum and zinc prices is mainly caused by supply constraints, and the expectation that China's stable growth policy and later policy strength may increase. Aluminum price rebounded a lot in the early stage, mainly due to the large drop in the recent two years. The stock adjustment should be the direct reason for the rapid rebound of spot price. The core factor that restricts the price rebound of aluminum and zinc is overcapacity. Once the price is high enough, the supply will increase significantly, which will suppress the price performance.

5. Spot price of aluminum: on August 28, Shanghai aluminum's opening price in the current month gradually increased slightly and recovered from the previous trading day consolidation range. In the spot market, the main transactions in Shanghai were 14390-14400 yuan / ton, the discount was 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton, the main transactions in Wuxi were 14400-14410 yuan / ton, and the main transactions in Hangzhou were 14390-14400 yuan / ton. The spot price continued to fluctuate at a high level, and the delivery of goods by the holders increased a little, but the offer was still firm Quite, the middlemen wait for the price of aluminum to be lowered, and there is no willingness to receive goods at a high price for the time being. The downstream wait and see, and the deal is deadlocked.

6. Spot price of zinc: on August 28, 0 × main zinc transaction was 16850-16890 yuan / ton, 0 × current zinc to Shanghai main zinc 1411 contract was flat rise 30 yuan / ton, 1 × main zinc transaction was 16800-16820 yuan / ton. The main center of gravity of zinc in Shanghai period was basically the same as yesterday, and the change of water rise was not maintained at the level of 30 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the price fixing and shipment of the cargo holders are positive, the period zinc fluctuation is limited, which hinders the enthusiasm of the speculators to receive the cargo, and the trading activity of the trade market is limited. Although near the end of the week, the demand for the downstream reserve is not high, the demand is still poor due to the weakness of the terminal order, which is mainly based on the rigid demand, and the overall transaction is not improved.

Summary

Yesterday, Hangzhou and Xi'an fully liberalized the restrictions on purchase, which showed that local governments were anxious to clear the real estate inventory, and later opened the land to businesses, thus increasing the financial revenue of local governments. The overall liberalization of purchase restrictions in provincial capital cities should be acquiesced by the high-level of the central government. This can show the great downward pressure of China's real estate market from one side. Recently, China's top officials have stated that China has no strong stimulus, and the only strong stimulus is to promote reform. The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and without strong stimulus, the price of aluminum and zinc is difficult to rise again. The decline of global investors' risk preference also suppresses the price of aluminum and zinc. In terms of strategy, we can consider light position test and set stop loss.